Commentary: AI Forecasters Close in on Human Rivals in Global Prediction Contest

ManticAI’s dramatic improvement marks a turning point in AI forecasting performance

How artificial intelligence is taking on humans in global prediction contests

Toni
Gates AI

Artificial intelligence just scored a milestone in human competition: forecasting the future. A British startup, ManticAI, ranked in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup, a global contest where participants predicted the likelihood of 60 real-world events—from political disputes to wildfire damage. This is a striking leap, considering that just last year the best AI forecaster was ranked around 300th place. The competition shows AI is catching up faster than expected.

Forecasting is no small feat. Contestants must predict probabilities of uncertain, complex events with accuracy measured months later. While expert humans still hold the edge, AI’s eighth-place finish shows its ability to rapidly learn and adapt. Metaculus CEO Deger Turan estimates AI could match or surpass top human forecasters by 2029. That’s less than five years away—a timeline that underscores how quickly AI is maturing.

What sets Mantic apart is its system design. Instead of relying on one model, it splits each forecasting problem across multiple AI agents—including models from OpenAI, Google, and DeepSeek—leveraging their unique strengths. This approach avoids groupthink, as the AI often diverged from the crowd consensus. It wasn’t just regurgitating training data but engaging in reasoning, challenging assumptions, and recalibrating daily with new information.

Still, AI forecasters aren’t flawless. They struggle with logical inconsistencies in highly interrelated events—tasks where human intuition and contextual judgment still shine. For example, humans remain superior when data is sparse or ambiguous, while AI excels with structured data like inflation rates or climate numbers. This complementarity points to a hybrid future, where human insight and AI persistence combine for more accurate forecasts.

The bigger picture is clear: AI is reshaping even fields thought to be deeply human, like judgment and intuition. According to Good Judgment, a leading forecasting firm, the future isn’t about AI replacing humans but merging strengths to accelerate accuracy. For decision-makers in business, politics, and finance, this could mean more reliable foresight in a world of uncertainty. And as one top human forecaster put it: if you can’t beat them, merge with them.

Credit:
British AI startup beats humans in international forecasting competition
By Robert Booth

Reference Link:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/sep/20/british-ai-startup-beats-humans-in-international-forecasting-competition

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